Analytical Support for Rapid Initial Assessment

Abstract—This paper presents a methodology for rapidly assessing the likely effect of proposed initiatives. We have applied it to initiatives and metrics for the counter-IED fight, but the method is general. We build a probabilistic model that provides an explicit executable representation of the initiative’s likely impact. The model is used to provide a consistent, explicit explanation to decision makers of the likely impact of the initiative. Sensitivity analysis on the model provides analytic information to support development of informative test plans. The method is designed to help when tight time constraints preclude or limit traditional test and evaluation methods, as is the case for initial decisions by the Joint IED Defeat Organization.